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Being right matters less than how much you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong.
In September 1992 Stanley Druckenmiller, managing money for George Soros, planned a large position against the British pound, and Soros judged it too small for the strength of the analysis. On Black Wednesday, 16 September, Britain left the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and the fund earned about a billion dollars. Druckenmiller has called that sizing lesson the most important thing Soros taught him.



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