The Next Global Economy: AI, Fragmentation, and Development to 2045

For thirty years the default story of the world economy was hyper-globalization: cheaper trade, longer supply chains, and poorer countries climbing by exporting manufactured goods. Since 2008 that story has been under strain, and now a general-purpose technology, AI, is arriving in the middle of the reconfiguration. Across ten modules and 40 sessions, this collection builds a working model of the global economy for the next ten years, with a twenty-year outlook: AI and productivity, trade and tariffs, industrial policy and sanctions, China's changing growth model, demographics and distribution, energy and critical minerals, food and water, debt and the dollar, and the development paths still open to the Global South. It treats "deglobalization" as a hypothesis to test against the data, sets out the competing views in each module, and names the signals worth watching, so a headline about tariffs, chip controls, a debt crisis, or an AI productivity claim can be placed inside one coherent picture.