The greenhouse effect is not an analogy. It is a quantitative consequence of radiative transfer physics, with absorption bands, emission spectra, and a measurable contribution from each greenhouse gas.
Without atmospheric greenhouse gases, Earth's average surface temperature would be approximately −18°C. The observed ~14°C surface average reflects the radiative-transfer effect of water vapor, CO₂, methane, and other IR-active gases. The math is well-established: each doubling of CO₂ concentration produces ~3°C of equilibrium warming after feedbacks. The physics is settled; what's contested is policy.
